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Objective To compare the accuracy of the seasonal time series decomposition method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in the prediction of incidence of tuberculosis(TB) in order to facilitate early-warning.Methods The seasonal decomposition model and ARIMA model were constructed by SPSS20.0 software based on time series of monthly TB incidence between January 2005 and December 2014 in Urumqi,China.The obtained models were used to forecast the monthly incidence in 2015 and compared with the actual incidence respectively.Results Between 2005 and 2014,the incidence of TB was higher during March,April and May in Urumqi.A linear fitting model and a cubic curve fitting model were constructed by the time series seasonal decomposition method.The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of each predicted monthly incidence in 2015 was 18.75% and 92.25%,respectively.The predicted values of the linear model were lower than actual values and the predicted values of the cubic curve model were higher than actual values.An ARIMA (2,1,1) (1,1,0)12 fitting model was established by ARIMA method.The MAPE of each predicted monthly incidence in 2015 was 9.46% and there were no significant differences between the predicted and actual values.Conclusion The ARIMA method is better than the seasonal decomposition method for predicting the monthly incidence of TB in Urumqi.
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Objective To evaluate the interventional of bare-handed core muscle strength training and the sling exercise therapy (SET) on low back pain.Methods The soldiers of an Air Force Station who suffered from low back pain participated in the study.One hundred and forty-four patients were equally divided into three groups: the core muscle strength group (using core muscle strength training and the general physical therapy), the SET group (using SET and general physical therapy), and the control group (using the general physical therapy).All the groups were tested for 6 weeks.Questionnaires were distributed to the three groups before intervention, two weeks, four weeks and six weeks after intervention in order to find out about the degree of LBP, lumbar function and activity of these cases.Changes in the lumbar muscle strength were observed.Results The number of the patients who completed the test included 43 cases in the bare-handed core muscle strength group, 43 cases in the SET group and 44 cases in the control group, respectively, the VAS scores were 3.25, the Roland scores were 5.83,the FFD scores were 8.58 of the bare-handed core muscle strength group;the VAS scores were 3.30, the Roland scores were 5.93,the FFD scores were 8.10 of the SET group;the VAS scores were 2.41, the Roland scores were 3.03,the FFD scores were 7.40 of the control group.The LBP intervention efficiency of the three groups was 90.90%, 85.13% and 46.82%, respectively.There was no significant difference in indexes between the test groups(P>0.05).But compared with the control group,there was significant difference(P<0.05).Conclusion The bare-handed core muscle strength training and SET have obvious effects on LBP cases.According to their own infrastructure and facilities, military health care organizations in different environments can intervene in LBP cases with the bare-handed core muscle strength training or SET to alleviate the pain effectively.
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Objective To analyze the epidemiologic characteristics and epidemic intensity of measles in China between 2005 and 2013 , and to provide evidence for reasonable allocation of health resources and measles elimination in China . Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were applied to measles surveillance data and demographic information during this study.Results A total of 597 594 cases, including 366 deaths, were reported from all over China , among whom 355 409 were males (59.47%) and 242 185 were females (40.53%).The average annual incidence was 5.07/100 000 and the average annual mortality was 0.0031/100 000.The majority of cases were children under 10 years old, accouning for 64.64%.Conclusion The incidence of measles in China is decreasing .Measles mainly occurrs in spring and there is significant difference between age and gender groups , and obvious regional differences are also found .
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Combining theory and practice at home and abroad in recent years ,construction plan of the military infectious diseases syndromic surveillance system was discussed from aspects of data collection and transmission , data analysis and early warning , incident response based on the core business requirements of syndromic surveillance for infectious diseases . The study provides the demand traction for the system construction .
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Risk assessment is critical to responses to public health emergencies .Practices and researches concerning risk assessment of public health emergencies in China′s military are still in the early stage .This paper summarizes the rele-vant concepts , categorization , assessment methods , and practices .Based on management requirements of risk assessment , suggestions are raised about how to strengthen the risk assessment capability of Armed Forces by formulating management rules, perfecting assessment methods and developing assessment tools .
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Objective To explore the effect of light chain gene library slauffling on the affinity of phage engineered antibody against HBsAg. Methods Human antibody light chain gene repertoire generated by RT-PCR from human peripheral blood lymphocyte, was inserted into the phagmid containing Fd gene to construct the phage antibody sublibrary, from which the light chain gene matching the heavy chain Fd gene was screened. Results After three rounds of selection by biopanning, eight clones with higher absorbency than that of original clone at 490nm in ELISA were obtained, indicating that the affinity of chain shuffled phage antibodies (phab) was improved (A_ 490 from 0.43?0.09 to 1.24?0.10). DNA sequencing showed three of the five V_L genes were ? type, and the other two were ? type. Conclusions The phab obtained possesses the specificity of anti-HBsAg property.
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Objective To study the epidemiology of outbreaks of infectious diseases in the armed forces from 1996 to 2005 to seek appropriate measures to prevent and control the outbreaks.Methods The reported data were descriptively analyzed concerning infectious diseases during a period of 1996 to 2005 bused on the Infectious Disease Surveillance and Reporting System of Chinese PLA.Results About 78 500 cases of 42 different infectious diseases were reported in Chinese PLA during 1996-2005.Viral hepatitis,dysentery,and pulmonary tuberculosis ranked the first,composing 81.49% of the total cases.The number of cases declined continuously during 1996-2000,but it became stable after 2000.Respiratory infectious diseases outnumbered that of intestinal infectious diseases gradually in recent years and became the most dominant infectious diseases.Conclusion The prevention and control of infectious diseases in the armed forces is a long-term task,and respiratory infectious diseases should be the focus in the work.